The Rare Earths Industry Worldwide 2014-2017: A Market / Technology Report 2014-06-24
The rare earths industry is in a state of transition. China, which currently dominates in the production of rare earths, as well as in many downstream product areas, is being challenged by new producers from other regions. This diversification in the supply of rare earths will potentially result in greater stability in terms of both supply and prices. These and many other crucial factors that will affect the future of the burgeoning rare earths industry are examined in detail in a new market report The Rare Earths Industry Worldwide 2014-2017.
Key findings of this new report include:-
- China's rare earths industry is entering a process of rationalisation and consolidation. From a current base of as many as 200 companies involved with mining and processing of rare earths, this consolidation process may ultimately result in a reduction to just 10 major companies. This will address the excess capacity within China's rare earths industry, as well as help tackle illegal mining and inefficient, environmentally damaging production practices.
- China accounted for about 95% of the global supply of rare earths in 2012 This is set to fall steadily, to around 60% by 2020, as new non-Chinese production of rare earths comes on-stream, with Molycorp Inc of the USA and Lynas Corp of Australia already starting-up the first phases of their rare earths production.
- There are currently some 200 non-Chinese rare earth exploration projects, with notable developments in North America, Australia, the CIS, India, Vietnam and South Africa. Rare earths projects that have advanced beyond preliminary stages are detailed in the report, including potential output capacities, feasibility study results, announced start-up dates, etc.
- The largest market for rare earths is permanent magnets, primarily neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) types but also samarium cobalt magnets. This industry consumed over 28,000 tonnes of rare earths in 2013, with wind energy and electric vehicles being the main drivers; this is set to grow by 8.5% a year to 2017. Other end user markets include batteries, catalysts, phosphors, glass additives and ceramics.
- Supply and demand trends are given to 2017 by consuming industry sector and individual rare earth type, with a detailed discussion of trends by country/region, allowing in-depth assessment of the potential for the global rare earths industry.
- Concerns that there will be shortages of some rare earths, such as neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and dysprosium, are addressed by the report, as is the likelihood that other types, such as cerium, are expected to be in surplus supply. Cerium is the largest component of most rare earth ores, but this does not correlate with current or predicted demand.
- Prices have fallen significantly since reaching high peaks in 2011, although most rare earths have now regained levels equal to or above those of 2008. It is expected that prices will achieve a degree of stability over the next three years. This should allow producers to make an adequate return on investment in new capacity.
- Some of the rare earths substitutions and reductions developed by end users as a reaction to the price increases in the 2010/2011 period (e.g. reduction in usage of dysprosium in magnets) are assumed to remain, even if rare earths prices stabilise. Recycling of rare earths will increase to 2-3% by 2017. These factors will skew the supply and demand situation to a certain extent, and are evaluated in the report.